The unexpected outcome of the Indian election has confirmed that Indian politics are unpredictable. Despite winning a third term in office, Prime Minister Narendra Modi‘s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) fell considerably short of its aim of 370 seats (400 with coalition partners) in the 543-seat lower house of parliament (Lok Sabha). The poor outcome has hurt the Modi brand, considering that he played a pivotal role as the party’s face during the election.
Despite the BJP government’s attempts to use India’s growing international prominence and its reputation as a Hindu nationalism in the election campaign, voters ultimately decided on local livelihood issues.
Large portions of the nation, especially those with a more cosmopolitan and secular mindset, as well as the south and India’s religious minorities, found little resonance with the BJP’s frequently controversial Hindutva (Hindu nationalist) rhetoric.
Its economic propaganda, which touted India as the main economy with the fastest rate of growth in the world, was equally ineffective in a nation where youth unemployment and inequality are rampant. India is viewed as a possible winner in the West’s drive to diversify or de-risk supply chains away from China, although inflows of foreign investment have decreased and manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has stagnated.
Is it downhill from here for Modi?
It is premature to write Modi off entirely, not with standing his compromised stance. He will only be the second prime minister in Indian history to win three terms in a row; Jawaharlal Nehru was the country’s first prime minister. Furthermore, Modi has proven he is capable of reinventing himself.
The BJP is the strongest party in the Lok Sabha and will form the next government, albeit being increasingly dependent on coalition partners. The BJP has shown itself to be a formidable force in Indian politics after decades of being a minor player. Less than half of the seats gained by the BJP went to the opposition Congress Party, which has led most administrations in India’s post-independence history. The BJP is here to stay, notwithstanding the unpredictable nature of Indian politics.
Even though Modi lost the election, India’s democratic credentials have been reaffirmed. In contrast to predictions that a third term of rule under Modi would spell the end for Indian democracy, the election has demonstrated that, in a nation as big and diverse as India, democracy is still robust and difficult to overthrow.
What happens now?
Cabinet appointments will be an important issue to monitor once the election has settled. Reshuffles are probably in store as the BJP tries to win over coalition partners. Given their tendency to switch between coalitions, regional parties such as the JD(U) (Janata Dal United) in Bihar and the TDP (Telegu Desam Party) in Andra Pradesh have been notable kingmakers.
A number of states, including Maharashtra, Jharkhand, and Haryana, will soon have elections. These will be significant given the BJP’s standing in the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of parliament, where the party is still without a majority. Legislation will be passed more easily if the BJP has a stronger position in both chambers of parliament. States decide who serves in the upper house.
It is also less likely that Modi will run for a fourth term in 2029 due to his weaker position. This will reignite discussions about succession planning inside the BJP. The party’s dismal showing in Uttar Pradesh, the biggest and most important state for elections in India, may damage the reputation of Yogi Adityanath, the chief minister of the region and a possible successor to modi.
Policy implications
From a policy standpoint, the results of the election will probably have an effect on India’s ability to make policies, which will make it more challenging to advance some of the more politically delicate economic changes, such labor and land reforms. These were difficult even before the election, as demonstrated in 2021 when widespread farmer protests hampered the implementation of agricultural policies.
But policymaking will also probably become less prone to rapid changes, like the government’s unexpected COVID-19 lockdown in 2021, and more consensus-based.
The BJP is likely to be restricted in pushing its more divisive identity-driven policies, even as its Hindutva rhetoric is likely to endure as the party looks to placate its core followers. This includes intentions to centralize political authority through possible constitutional changes and efforts to adopt a uniform civil code, which would require a single set of personal laws across religious groupings.
The goal of the BJP’s agenda was to transform India into a developed nation by 2047, or “Viksit Bharat.” Making India a reliable global manufacturing base and improving the investment climate for foreign companies would thus be top priorities for the incoming government. This will necessitate advancement in a number of ongoing free trade discussions, including those with the UK, from a foreign policy standpoint. Even while talks will go on, developments are expected to be slowed down by a potentially weaker coalition administration in New Delhi and a potential change of government in Westminster.
Additionally, the Modi government has promoted India as a civilizational state through an aggressive and ideologically motivated foreign policy. There have been real attempts to position India as a bridging power between the West and the Global South, particularly during India’s G20 presidency when it assisted in facilitating the membership of the African Union, even though some of this rhetoric has been rhetorical, such as calling the nation Bharat and referring to it as a Vishwaguru (teacher of the world) and Vishwamitra (friend of the world).
While India will certainly maintain its assertive foreign policy, it may take on a more subdued tone as the country prepares to enter a coalition administration led by the BJP and face setbacks following unsatisfactory election results.
It’s also likely that the most contentious aspects of India’s more assertive foreign policy, which have included claims of Indian complicity in murder plots in the US and Canada, will be softened.
The outcome of the election has demonstrated the tenacity and robustness of India’s democracy and may have reinforced its secular credentials. However, it also begs the question of how India’s assertive foreign policy and policymaking effectiveness might be affected by a weaker Modi government in its third term.
The result is ultimately the best of both worlds because it provides some stability and continuity while limiting the BJP’s ability to forward its more divisive identity-driven agenda due to the weaker mandate.